fnctId=thesis,fnctNo=358
[김도원, 진태영] Impact of changes of allocation and price in emission trading scheme on the electricity market: Korean case study
- 작성자
- scsc연구센터
- 저자
- Jungmin Lim, Seongjun Lee, Taeyoung JIn, Dowon Kim
- 발행사항
- 발행일
- 20260424
- 저널명
- Energy Policy
- 국문초록
- 영문초록
- This study examines how key design elements of the Korean Emissions Trading Scheme (K-ETS)―benchmarking
method, auctioning share, and carbon price―affect the electricity market, with a focus on generation mix and
firm-level profitability. We develop an integrated modeling framework linking emission allowance allocation,
carbon-cost internalization, and electricity dispatch, and apply it to eight policy scenarios for Phase IV of the KETS (2026?2030). To clarify policy mechanisms, the combined effects of ETS reforms are decomposed into their
individual contributions. The results show that switching from a fuel-specific to a uniform benchmark reduces
free allocations for fossil fuel?based generators and lowers profitability across all generation companies, with
disproportionately larger losses for coal-intensive portfolios. Increasing the auctioning share raises the marginal
cost of carbon-intensive generation and modestly incentivizes cleaner technologies, but its overall system impact
remains limited. In contrast, higher carbon prices exert the strongest influence by increasing the carbon-inclusive
heat rate cost of coal relative to gas, enabling partial coal-to-gas substitution and reshaping the distribution of
generation and profits across firms. These effects are distributionally non-neutral, favoring generators with
cleaner portfolios. Sensitivity analyses confirm that these qualitative findings are robust across alternative
market conditions, although effect magnitudes vary. From a policy perspective, the results indicate that
benchmarking reform alone is insufficient to induce large-scale environmental dispatch in Korea's cost-based
pool(CBP) electricity market with limited cost pass-through. Meaningful decarbonization requires a coordinated policy package combining higher carbon prices, expanded auctioning, and complementary electricity
market reforms.
- 일반텍스트
- 첨부파일